Chalk it up to the holiday spirit: In December, both professional stock-market timers and individual investors are more bullish than in any other month.

This means a bear market is less likely to begin during the last few weeks of the year than at other times. But don’t expect a big market surge, either. The bullishness in December is more nuanced than the exuberance sometimes seen the rest of the year—which means investors probably won’t go on a buying spree.

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